WARM WELCOME ON THIS BLOG. I INTEND TO PROVIDE MY VIEWS AFTER INTENSE RESEARCH ON CHARTS USING NUMEROUS INDICATORS AND RECOMMEND FEW STOCKS. STILL ONE SHOULD CONSIDER TRADE AS PER MY OPINION PROVIDED MARKET BEHAVES NORMALY (MEANS THERE IS NO HEAVY CORRECTION)USING YOUR DISCREATION.
Sunday, June 29, 2008
It’s a weekend and time for retrospection. After a long time, I am looking at nifty with a long-term view, by changing indicator parameters. Looking at the waves of market, the ups and downs of sentiments, I found it hard to decide which wave-pattern is interesting, the market or its sentiment. Just thought, I should share this with you guys.Take a look at the chart attached. Eight parts of this chart can be seen easily.First part: Period- October-November 2007,The market was bumpy, though it was in the up-trend, like a person not sure about the road, but goes ahead, hesitant a bit.The sentiment can easily be seen in the indicator going down.Second part: period- December 2007-January 2008,Market starts climbing breaking a sort of double top to make a new high. But the absence of confidence can clearly be seen. Like a person walking in the desert, sees water at a distance.Third part: period- Second half of January 2008,The water turned out to be mirage. All the hopes turned out to be dream. All the dreams shattered.The sentiment can clearly be seen in the indicator.Fourth part: period- February 2008,“I must pull up my socks. Market can go up. I should only have the faith in market.” This is what an investor should be telling to himself. Though the market is range-bound, the slow confidence building can be seen.Fifth part: period- first half of March 2008,The loss of optimism is reflected in the market downtrend.Sixth part: period- mid March 2008-April 2008,Classical example of what Vijay (Sainik) called as “Bull trap”. Positive market sentiment, the uptrending market, everything is like bullish market. But is it?Seventh part: period- May 2008-mid June 2008,“Kya hua tera wada, woh kasam, woh irada.” Similar sentiments can be seen in the market trend. Eighth part: period – post mid June 2008,Looks like the market is making efforts to come out of the depression. It’s too early to predict such things though. But if we believe Elliot wave principle, the latest down trend i.e. wave C of A-B-C, is perfect example of impulse –from wave 1 to wave 5, all in perfect shape and end of wave 5 means completion of wave C. And that means initiation of next motive wave i.e. the uptrend.So when Sainik says, “worst is over for the time being”, we tend to believe him. After all it’s a game of sentiment, isn’t it?But slight word of caution. Take a look at weekly chart. The sentiments are still pointing downward though it has recovered a lot from the bottom. No more bad news from the global market can boost the sentiments and market as well. Anymore bad news expected in future? If so, I will wait for few more days before coming to conclusion.
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